An alien rodent on a protected island: estimating the abundance of the rock cavy on Fernando de Noronha, Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37002/biodiversidadebrasileira.v15i1.2464Palavras-chave:
Kerodon rupestris , capture-resight , exotic species , island conservationResumo
Understanding an alien species’ population structure and dynamics is crucial to both assess its potential threat level to native environments and to plan management if needed. This is achieved by estimating population parameters. However, on island environments – especially in developing countries – logistics, cost and certain species traits may hinder data collection, resulting in sparse datasets. The present study aimed at providing preliminary estimation of survival probability and abundance of rock cavy (Kerodon rupestris; Caviidae: Rodentia) on the island of Fernando de Noronha using a sparse data. Using a zero-truncated poisson log-normal mixed effects model (ZPNE) we first estimated the number of individuals in one rock cavy colony (i.e., Boldró colony). Using its calculated density (number of individuals divided by colony area) and information on mapped colonies collected using satellite imagery, we calculated the island population size. The ZPNE model presented a mean survival probability of 0.5499 in 185 days, and a mean capture probability of 0.858. The extrapolation of population size estimates from the Boldró colony (21; CI95% 12 – 36 individuals) suggests that the rock cavy population in Fernando de Noronha consists of 5,473 (CI95% 3,114 – 9,622) individuals. Even with limited data and warranted caution, the present preliminary study assessed population parameters for this insular rock cavy population, contributing with valuable information for planning its management for the first time.
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